Time for Microsoft to Go Hostile

This weekend Microsoft withdrew their bid to buy out Yahoo! for $31/share. They reportedly look the offer as high as $33/share, but Yahoo! was looking to get $37/share. Now in premarket trading, Yahoo! shares are down over 20% at around $22/share. I think it was a good move on Microsoft’s part. Rather than pay the $31/share that they were offering or the $37/share that Yahoo! wanted, Microsoft can now perform a hostile takeover for nearly 70 cents on the dollar on their original offer (60 cents on the dollar of what Yahoo! was asking). It’s just another twist in the ongoing saga between Yahoo! and Microsoft.

Microsoft will likely lay low for a while now to see if Yahoo! will come crawling back as they lose billions in market value. It will also allow some time for the share price to fall and stabilize a bit before they begin the hostile takeover. There is also a lot of talk that Yahoo! will take a poison pill by allowing current shareholders to purchase new issues and thus diluting shares (and effectively lowering the stock price). I think this is an extremely poor tactic and undermines the whole purpose of investing in public companies. It is also possible that Microsoft will never pursue a hostile takeover for this reason. Either way, the Yahoo! board of directors needs to be prepared for another barrage of class action lawsuits.

Prosper Greasemonkey Script for Firefox

I finally downloaded and tried out Greasemonkey for Firefox extension the other day. I had heard of it before, but never installed it until recently. Greasemonkey is a Firefox extension that allows you to manipulate any web page you visit in Firefox. It uses JavaScript code that runs as if it were embedded into the website. It also provides some additional functions that let you do magical things such as cross-site scripting (which can also be dangerous if you install a malicious script). I actually had written a few JavaScript “bookmarks” to do some quick stuff for me on the Prosper website, but Greasemonkey provides a much better interface. It allows me to do what my bookmarks were doing and even more. Here are the features I’ve put into the script so far:

  • Auto-login
  • This is disabled by default. In order to enable it, right-click on the monkey, and click “Disable Automatic Login” under the User Script Commands. When the prompt appears asking if you want to disable the auto-login, click Cancel and it will enable the automatic login. I realize this probably isn’t the most intuitive thing in the world, but I was too lazy to develop my own dialog and I just used the window.confirm() JavaScript method. Your username and password is stored locally within your browser and is not transmitted anywhere other than to the Prosper website.

    I assure you that that the auto-login feature does nothing evil. I have it disabled by default in case you don’t believe me. Your username and password will be stored as configuration values within Firefox. If you navigate to about:config in the browser, you’ll see them under greasemonkey.scriptvals. Please note that the password is not encrypted. If you’re using a public machine or someone else’s computer, you may want to think twice about using the auto-login feature.

  • Total Revolving Credit and Total Available Credit
  • If there is more than 0% utilization, then the calculated total revolving credit and total available credit is displayed. If utilization is 0%, it is displayed as Indeterminate.

  • Estimations on Listing and Search pages
  • The estimated loss, adjustments, fees, and estimated return will be displayed on listing pages. On search pages, I display just the estimated return and estimated loss (to take up a bit less space than displaying all 4 numbers). You will need to be logged in for this feature to work.

If you’d like to try it out, first install Greasemonkey on Firefox. Then click the button below to install:

If you have any suggestions for new features to add, please feel free to let me know and I’ll be glad to see what I can do to accomodate.


Update: I’ve added a user script command called “Set Investment Preferences.” It allows you to specify a minimum desired return, bid amount, and maximum loss amount. When you run searches, as the estimates are loaded in, listings will be removed if they are below the minimum desired return or if they have an estimated loss higher than the max loss.

The WealthBoy Strict ROI for Prosper Lenders

As I was writing my Rule of 72 on Prosper article for the official Prosper Blog, I began to think about developing my own ROI calculation based on what I had written. I had attempted creating an ROI calculation once before that was based on actual payments received, but I became frustrated with the lack of the detail payment data in the LoanPerformance table of the private export. I took another crack at developing an ROI calculation based on actual payments, and think I’ve come up with something that’s reasonable. If you’re interested in the actual implementation, you may want to check out the technical details and link to the SQL code here:

http://wealthboy.com/wbsroi-technical-details/

Once I’ve constructed the tables necessary to calculate the payments that a lender has received, I have all of the information necessary to calculate the WealthBoy Strict ROI. The WBSROI performs two return calculations: TotalROI and AnnualizedROI. The TotalROI calculation is calculated by dividing the total profit (interest less servicing fees) by the total amount invested (which excludes reinvested loans). The calculation does not take into account the declining balances, hence the “strict” designation. If you have been lending successfully for a long time, it is certainly possible to have a TotalROI more than 100%. Here is the formula in a nutshell:

TotalROI = (Total Interest Received - Fees - Losses on Defaults) / (Total Loan Originations - Reinvested Loans)

The AnnualizedROI is calculated by dividing the TotalROI by the weighted average loan age and multiplying by 12. The weight for each bid is the amount lent as a percentage of the total originations. This may not be the best way to perform the AnnualizedROI calculation, but it was the best I could come up with. I believe the TotalROI is relatively indisputable, barring the errors in the payment calculations. The AnnualizedROI could probably use some enhancements.

I like the idea of having a strict ROI calculation that doesn’t account for the declining balances. Many lenders on Prosper may not even be aware of what a declining balance is. Others may know about declining balances, but they just want to know what kind of return they’ve received on the total amount they’ve invested. That is what the WealthBoy Strict ROI attempts to do, and I believe it does it reasonably well. If you are reinvesting loans, your strict ROI should be reasonably close to your average interest rate less fees and your default rate.

So what about late loans? Why aren’t they part of the calculation? Well, one of the nice things about of my calculation is that it really doesn’t take much more effort to account for the probability of late loans eventually defaulting. With the information provided in the calculation, you know the total investment and you know the total profit. All you need to do to account for late loans is to incorporate the loss estimation into the profit and presto! You have your new ROI including the probability of late loans defaulting.

I decided to exclude any default projections from the initial announcement of my ROI calculation. Although it probably wouldn’t take much more effort to incorporate it, I think there is something to be said for an ROI calculation that doesn’t make any kind of suppositions. The WealthBoy Strict ROI calculates how much went in and how much came out. It makes no assumptions about the future value of loans. I have left it to others to make whatever assumptions they wish to make about estimating defaults.

I do realize that not everyone has the expertise and/or resources to put together a Microsoft SQL Server database for analyzing Prosper data. Unfortunately, I don’t have a web application connected to my database so that people can see their WBSROI. If you would like me to provide you with your WBSROI, just post your screen name into a comment here. I’ll post the data in a responding comment. If I become overwhelmed with responses to the post, I may not be able to respond to requests any longer. If it does become a popular metric, perhaps someone with a popular stats site may be willing to add my calculations to their site. Here is what the WBSROI on my account looks like:

Screen Name:WealthBoy
Total Bid Count: 45
Total Reinvested Bids: 3
Total Originations (total amount loaned): $2,250
Total Investment (total amount loaned excluding reinvested bids): $2,100
Total Income (total principal and interest less fees): $209.22
Total Profit (total interest less fees and defaults): $60.53
Total ROI: 2.88%
Average Loan Age: 1.76 months
Annualized ROI: 19.62%

Free Money for You and Me

Earlier this week I came to learn about Revolution Money Exchange. It’s a totally legitimate money transfer website, similar to PayPal but without the fees! There is a daily transfer limit of $1,000, and a monthly transaction limit of $2,500. You can also hold no more than $2,500 in the account. Be sure to check them out and if you sign up, you’ll get $25 and I get $10! You’ll also get $10 for each person that you refer between now and April 15, 2008.


Refer A Friend using Revolution Money Exchange


Update: The $25 offer has been extended for another month until May 15, 2008, so it’s still not too late!

Who is to Blame for the Credit Crunch?

There are many lenders currently under investigation for fraud, perhaps most notably the nation’s largest mortgage lender, Countrywide Financial. Even if Countrywide is found to be guilty of fraud, one company alone (even if it is responsible for 20% of the mortgages in the U.S.) cannot be to blame for the woes of the credit and housing markets. If anything is to blame, it is the market itself.

As mortgage rates began to fall towards all-time lows early in 2004, real estate prices skyrocketed. Thus began an insatiable appetite for home ownership, and lenders began to offer all kinds of mortgage products that would allow consumers to finance as much as possible for as low a monthly payment as possible. It was a snowball effect that caused a housing bubble that eventually popped.

Unfortunately, a lot of time and money will now be spent with investigating lenders. Time and effort will also go into the development of new regulations to prevent such a calamity in the future. At this point there is little that can be done to rectify the problem, other than to simply let the markets take their course. The reality is that the banks have already paid the penalty with the increasing number of defaults they are experiencing. Most of the new regulations will probably be unnecessary, as the banks have learned their lesson and have become very restrictive with their lending practices in light of what is taking place in the real estate market and lending market.

If you still insist that someone should be to blame, you could point the finger at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and former chairman Alan Greenspan. Although mortgages do not directly follow the Federal Funds Rate, they do tend to trend along with the Federal Funds Rate when it experiences rapid and drastic changes. From January of 2001 to June of 2003, the Fed Funds Rate dropped from 6.5% all the way down to 1%. They remained at 1% for a year, until the Fed began raising rates again in June of 2004. There are others that also share my view that Greenspan is partially to blame for the credit crunch.

Not only did the Fed’s monetary policy help fuel the fire for the spike in home prices, but remarks by the Fed chairman did as well:

American consumers might benefit if lenders provided greater mortgage product alternatives to the traditional fixed-rate mortgage. To the degree that households are driven by fears of payment shocks but are willing to manage their own interest rate risks, the traditional fixed-rate mortgage may be an expensive method of financing a home.

I think it is outrageous for the Fed chairman to make such remarks when fixed rate mortgages are at an all-time low (that remark was made on February 23, 2004). Certainly the banks were more than glad to oblige him, and they offered all sorts of exotic products to allow borrowers the highest mortgage balance possible for the lowest monthly payment. If you combine a high mortgage balance, an interest rate that is adjusting upwards, and little (or negative) home equity, you have a high probability that a default will take place.

Not only will a homeowner have a difficult time with the higher monthly payment on an adjusting rate, but with little or negative home equity, they may not be able to refinance into a fixed rate mortgage. Even if a borrower somehow manages to pass the strict requirements that lenders now have, the new fixed rate is very likely to be higher than the rate they had previously. The new payments are likely to be higher because of the higher rate as well as the principal component, which may have not been present in their prior mortgage if they had an interest-only loan.

The Fed may have prevented a recession in 2001, but the housing and lending markets are paying for it now. Now the Fed is lowering the Fed Funds Rate again, in hopes to prevent a recession from taking place. Sound familiar? Fortunately, this time there won’t be another housing bubble since the last one is still deflating. I think this time the actions of the Fed will result in the cheapening of our currency. It has already begun to happen, and is likely to get worse. Because the U.S. economy depends so much on foreign exports, the current actions of the Fed will most likely result in inflation.

Adding insult to injury, the bursting of the housing bubble has also contributed to the decline of the dollar. Foreign investors hold trillions of dollars in mortgage-backed securities. The problems with the housing and lending markets have led to a huge sell-off in these securities, lowering the demand for the U.S. dollar. If it wasn’t for foreign monetary policy, the decline of the dollar would probably have been much worse than it has been.

I think some moderate inflation will be necessary to allow household incomes to catch up with home prices. Even with the deflation of the housing bubble, home prices are still very high relative to incomes. If one is to purchase a home today with a traditional fixed rate mortgage, either their income needs to rise, the price of real estate must fall further, mortgage rates need to come down, or some combination of the three. Rising incomes will also help to lessen the blow of the problems with foreclosures and defaults. Lower foreclosures and defaults will improve the problems with the secondary mortgage markets, which will restore some confidence with foreign investors in that market. Eventually when things settle down the U.S. dollar should stabilize as well. It will certainly be interesting to see how things play out.

Is the Worst Behind Us in the Stock Markets?

Yesterday I saw an interesting poll on Yahoo! Finance that asked, “With the stock market showing renewed strength is it safe to buy?” As of now, the results are as follows:

Yes. We’ve bottomed. 28%
Stocks will trade sideways. 30%
No. This is a head-fake. 42%

64410 Votes to date

It is rare for me to be in the majority, but I agree that this indeed is a head fake. It is a relatively well known fact that the biggest one-day gains in the stock market tend to happen during bear markets. It would seem the majority participating in the poll are either aware of this fact or are aware that the economy is still in a relatively poor state. I think as the year progresses, there will be economic reports that indicate the economy is either stalling or falling. I think there will be more pain to come in the stock markets.

Is there anything you can do to protect yourself? One thing you can do is buy put options to hedge against losses in any long positions you have. The problem is that everyone else is doing this as well, and it is driving up option prices/implied volatility. Just take a look at the chart for the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) since October of last year, when the market indices reached all-time highs.

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)

That means you will be paying a lot for any “stock insurance policies” as I like to call them, which will effectively lower your returns. If you’re in it for the long haul and you’re feeling bearish, you could always write covered calls and receive some income to help dampen any potential losses. Now would also be a good time to write covered calls because implied volatility is on the rise, which means you can receive bigger premiums. Of course, if I’m wrong and the markets do continue the upward trend, you could potentially be limiting your gains by writing covered calls.

New Peer-to-peer Lender for Student Loans

Techcrunch has an article today about a new peer-to-peer lender for student loans called Fynanz. According to the lender FAQ, they will guarantee 50-100% of the loan if the borrower defaults. There are a few reasons why I have my doubts that Fynanz will work:

  • Interest rates on student loans tend to be pretty low. It will be difficult to attract students to Fynanz, when they can just get a traditional student loan at a lower interest rate.
  • If the rates do get bid down low enough to compete with traditional student loans, the rates may not be high enough to attract investors, even if a minimum of 50% of the principal is guaranteed.
  • As with traditional student loans, the term of the loans are long. At a glance, I looked at some of the loans and I saw them ranging from 10-20 years. This is an extraordinarily long time for an investor to lock up money in an illiquid investment. They will need to eventually provide a secondary market to provide liquidity, otherwise they will most certainly be doomed to the deadpool.
  • As with traditional student loans, borrowers have the option to defer payments. Many investors won’t like the idea of waiting for up to several years before receiving their first payment.

Time will tell if Fynanz will survive, and I will certainly be watching with great interest.

Yahoo! Attempts to Increase Market Value with Investor Presentation

Today Yahoo! announced that they filed an investor presentation which details the company’s three-year financial plan and strategic initiatives. If you ask me, it is simply a meager attempt to raise the stock price so that Yahoo! can justify the denial of Microsoft’s bid to buy them out for $31 a share. It does appear to have had some effect, as the stock is up to around $27.25 which is about a 5.4% increase over yesterday’s close. However, the entire NASDAQ is up over 3% today, so much of that 5.4% increase is a result from today’s overall market sentiment. Yahoo! is still down over 9% from the high it reached shortly after Microsoft made the buyout offer. Yahoo!’s stock price still has to make up considerable ground (over a 13% from the current price) to even reach Microsoft’s bid price, let alone reach some value considerably beyond that.

The Number One Mistake that Would-be Real Estate Investors Make

I met with my friend’s wife this weekend to learn more about her thriving real estate business. She helped to confirm what I suspected to be the number one mistake that new investors make: they expect to make good returns by paying “retail” prices for real estate. By “retail” prices, I mean that they pay the same price for a property as someone would pay for their primary residence. It is very difficult (if not impossible) to make money in real estate by paying fair market value for investment properties, especially in today’s real estate market.

The real estate business is very much like any other in many ways. If you are buying and selling widgets on eBay and you buy your widgets for retail price at Wal-Mart, there is no way in hell you are going to make any money. You have to buy your widgets at a heavily discounted price in order to turn a profit. The same goes for real estate. If you are going to make money in real estate, you have to buy properties at a heavily discounted price.

Even if you use the cheapest kind of financing possible (i.e. an interest-only loan), it would still be difficult to make positive cash flow on a rental property. It would also be difficult to try to make upgrades to the property to sell it for a profit, if you paid fair market value for the property. The closing costs, holding costs, not to mention the cost of upgrades and repairs would erode your profit. Even if you paid cash for the property, it is may still be difficult to simply recover upgrade costs unless you made a major improvement such as adding a bedroom and/or bathroom.

The best way to mitigate risk when investing real estate is to make sure you pay as little as possible for investment properties. I’m talking about paying 65-70% on the dollar or less, not a discount of a mere 5-10% of fair market value. The less you pay, the more room for profit it will give you for recovering closing costs, holding costs, and the cost of repairing and upgrading the property. It also leaves room for positive cash flow if you plan on buying, holding, and renting (which is what my friend’s wife does). If you do ever decide to take the plunge and get into investing in real estate, be sure you are getting a steal on the properties you buy. Otherwise, you could very likely have a bad experience and will never invest in real estate ever again.

Of course, the big secret is how can you possibly manage to buy a home for 65% on the dollar. Perhaps that will be another article for another time, but there are many books and resources on the internet that will tell you how to do it. It is a matter of doing your research and acting on what you’ve learned. The biggest challenge (especially for an analytical person such as myself) is actually taking action after becoming educated with good information.

Receiving Dividends from Non-Dividend Stocks

If you own 100 shares or more in a company that does not pay dividends but that does trade options, you can still receive income from your stock by writing covered calls. When you write a call, you are selling a derivative (financial contract whose value derives from the value of the underlying stock) that gives someone else the option to buy (typically) 100 shares of the underlying stock at a specific price (strike price). If the buyer of the contract decides to exercise the option (buy the stock at the strike price), you would be obligated to sell the shares at the strike price. With a covered call you already own the shares of the underlying stock, hence the call is “covered.” In other words, you won’t have a short position in the stock if someone exercises the call option(s) you sold. In my opinion, there’s little reason not to write covered calls if you hold 100 shares or more in a stock that has options.

So what’s the catch? Covered calls can limit your gains if the stock increases rapidly prior to the expiration of the contract. For example, say Microsoft is trading around $28 a share and you own 100 shares. You decide to write a covered call for the $30-strike expiring next month. You sell the single call contract for next month, let’s say for $0.60. So you receive $60 in premium (less commissions) for the contract. Before the contract expires, Microsoft makes a surprise announcement and the stock surges $4 to reach $32 a share. Because you’ve sold the covered call for $30, your gain on the stock will be capped at $30 because of your contractual obligation to sell at that price. You will make $2.60 (the $2 increase plus the $0.60 premium), however if you had kept the stock you could have made $4 a share instead.

If you ask me, covered calls are still a great deal as long as you are selling calls that are well out-of-the money. Selling out-of-the-money means you are selling the call at a strike higher than the current stock price. You should select a strike that would give that would provide a satisfactory annualized gain if the stock hits the strike, but that also provides adequate income if it does not. In the Microsoft example, if the stock price were to hit $30, the appreciation in price and call premium would provide a total of $2.60 profit within a period of one month. $2.60 on a $28 stock is nearly 10% and on an annualized basis would provide more than a 110% return. Anyone who expects better than a 110% return investing in stocks is probably setting unrealistic expectations. I would also hesitate to call them an investor and they may be better labeled as a gambler.

Even if Microsoft weren’t to reach $30 by the time the contract expired, you would keep the $0.60 per share in premium you received and the contract would expire worthless. The following month you could write another covered call at the $30-strike for about $0.60 again (assuming the stock doesn’t make a drastic drop before then). On an annualized basis, $0.60 a month on a $28 stock is still a 25% return. That means Microsoft could stay completely flat on the year and you would still make a 25% return. In this example the covered call provides what I would consider adequate income (25% annualized) if stock doesn’t hit the strike, as well as an excellent return if the stock does hit the strike (110% annualized).

However, if Microsoft were to experience a drastic drop, say down to $20, the $30 call for the following month would not pay nearly as much (maybe even only $0.05). If a stock has dropped well below your cost basis it may not be worth it for you to write covered calls, unless you are okay with the possibility of realizing a loss. Let’s say Microsoft does drop down to $20 the following month and your cost basis was $28 per share. In order to receive a similar amount of premium as the prior month, you would probably have to write the $22.50 call instead of the $30 call. If you were to write the $22.50 call, receive $0.60 in premium, and the stock were to rally, you would be in big trouble. If the contract expires and Microsoft is priced higher than $22.50, you would realize a $4.30 loss ($22.50 sale price minus $28 cost basis plus $1.20 premium from the calls written over the period of two months). If the stock were to up more than $23.70 ($1.20 above the $22.50 strike), you would have realized more loss than if you would have just held onto the stock without writing the second covered call.

You do have to be careful when the stock is well-below your cost basis and you perform covered calls. Many investors write calls as soon as they buy the stock. For this reason, a covered call strategy is also sometimes also referred to as a buy-write. Performing a buy-write is one way of ensuring you receive an acceptable premium in terms of your cost basis. Please note that this strategy can just as easily be used with stocks that pay dividends as well as stocks that do not. You will likely receive more income from covered calls than you would from dividends anyway, so certainly the strategy applies to dividend stocks as well. In fact, Microsoft does pay a dividend. However, at less than a 2% dividend yield, the dividend income pales in comparison to the income covered calls on Microsoft could provide.

If it sounds like something you’re interested in investing in, but would rather have someone else manage it, there are actually a few buy-write index funds that use the strategy. For example, the iPath CBOE S&P 500 BuyWrite Index ETN (ticker BWV) performs buy-write transactions on S&P 500 stocks.
iPath CBOE S&P 500 BuyWrite Index ETN vs. S&P 500

As you can see, the index fund has tended to outperform the S&P 500 during the time frame displayed, since the covered calls provide some income to offset losses. It is also interesting to note that between the middle of September of 2007 and the middle of October of 2007, the S&P outperformed the fund. This is because the S&P experienced a drastic rally in this period and the gains in the fund were capped by the covered calls. The S&P increased about 6% during this period and the fund only increased by about 2%. However, shortly after the rally the S&P it also experienced a steep drop. The iPath CBOE S&P 500 BuyWrite Index performed much better during that period. The index fund lost about 3% but the S&P fell about 10%.

If you are long on stocks and/or index funds, you should definitely consider adding covered calls as part of your overall investment strategy. Disclaimer: The stock and index fund mentioned in this article are provided for informational and illustration purposes only. The securities and derivatives discussed are for your edification and are not intended to be recommendations. If you are interested in learning more, I highly recommend reading more about options. The Options Industry Council has a lot of excellent information about options, covered calls, and other strategies as well.